Summary: In the first half of 2025, Germany saw 325,300 new company formations, up 4.6% from the same period in 2024, with 67,600 of these being larger startups (up 9.4%). Closures rose to 246,900 (up 1.6%), including 51,800 among larger firms (up 6.6%). Net, startups still outnumber closures, signaling expansion. The dropout rate is steep—about one third leave within three years, and 61% stay active after five. Founders average 34.4 years old, with a slight expectation of higher founding numbers for the year. Over three years, roughly 20% of founders had a migration background.

If you’re looking for the raw truth behind the glow-up: this is churn dressed as growth, and someone’s counting the churn to keep the party going.

This is a sabotage of real understanding, not a miracle of the market. They parade ever-rising startup counts like a trophy, but those numbers are a disease model in disguise: more new registrations, yes, but also more failed ventures, and a lot of people skating by on subsidies, not building real, lasting companies. The higher numbers for “larger startups” don’t magically fix the fragility of the ecosystem—those firms can still fail and reset the clock on employment faster than you can say “bureaucracy.” And that dropout rate? That’s not strength; that’s a caution sign. A third of founders leaving in three years screams: this is precarious work, not durable wealth creation.

The “net expansion” headline hinges on the counts, not on real stability. You get a glossy chart, then you get a messy labor market, with firms that exist because the program exists, not because the market actually rewards sustainable value. The average founder is 34.4? Great for PR, but it tells you nothing about long-term profitability or wage growth. And one in five founders with a migration background gets weaponized by policymakers as “proof of success,” which is a neat way to talk about integration while keeping the old economy’s power structures intact.

Watch the sleight of hand: if a few thousand more startups are saved by cheap loans, tax offsets, and dense paperwork that makes “starting a business” a government-sponsored sport, you’ll get more headlines about growth while the actual, living economy remains hostage to subsidies and fragile ventures propped up by the state. The numbers don’t lie, but the story they tell can be a lie you keep repeating to justify more subsidies, more inclusivity rhetoric, and more regulatory change aimed at keeping the startup treadmill running.

Bottom line: the data scream “growth,” but the underlying drumbeat is risk, churn, and dependence on public money. Until we see durable, well-paying jobs and real, scalable companies replacing the churn, this so-called expansion is more mirage than miracle. Keep your eyes on actual revenue, long-term survival, and real wages—not just the next round of “new company” press releases.